I have posted before about the possibility of a return to the draft. Talk about the draft has unleashed a flurry of rumors and speculation over the past several months. Many in both the media and the government say a draft is unlikely. Yet, as the Associated Press reported today, the idea just doesn’t seem to be going away. Does that mean that there is something to all the talk? Or is all this simply the result of an overzealous internet rumor mill? Just how likely is a draft anyway?

While it is certainly possible that there will not be a return to the draft, it seems unwise to ignore the possibility entirely. So in the interest of keeping people informed about the coming draft, I have taken the time to write my responses to many of the statements that are commonly used as evidence that there will not be a draft.

“The government wouldn’t enact a draft because it would be too unpopular.”

This is probably one of the most surprising ones I have heard. It really rests on the belief that the government could never do something that is unpopular. This is just untrue. George W. Bush has already demonstrated a blatant disregard for public opinion, ignoring a massive worldwide protest of the Iraq war and forcing protesters into “free speech zones.”

The fact is that Americans were against the draft when it was used during the Vietnam War as well. Yet the government continued to draft people for several years. And the anti-war movement of that era had the advantage of living in time of heightened cynicism of and disregard for the United States government. Now, because of the Vietnam experience, that is a mindset that our society no longer tolerates as much as it once did. And 9/11 further rallied Americans and left the country with an even greater sense of nationalism. Anyone who would resist being drafted today would likely give in relatively quickly to the chorus of those accusing him or her of being “anti-American” or “not supporting the troops.”

Bush is probably smart enough to avoid bringing back the draft during an election year. But assuming he wins in November, the possibility becomes more likely. Presidents always become bolder in their second term, and Bush has been fairly bold even in his first term.

“Bush wouldn’t reinstate the draft. Draft supporters are Democrats, not Republicans.”

It is true that Democrats have historically been the staunchest supporters of the draft. It is also true that the Universal National Service Act, the bill currently in Congress that would bring back the draft, was introduced by Democrats. However, people should not be tricked into thinking that this is a partisan issue. The draft has supporters on both sides of the aisle. Democrats like New York Congressman Charles Rangel support a draft because it means a more equal representation of the American population serving in the military. Republicans such as Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel support the draft because it means supplying the military with needed manpower and having more Americans take responsibility for the country’s defense. That this is an issue that both parties can easily agree on seems to make the possibility all the more likely.

Senator Kerry has already stated his intentions regarding a draft, saying, “If you elect me president … I will give us a foreign policy that absolutely makes it unnecessary to have a draft.” Bush has made no such definitive statements.

“The Universal National Service Act was introduced back in January 2003, and it didn’t have the support to pass Congress.”

As Snopes recently reported, “Both the Congressional bills were introduced back in January 2003 and have languished in committee ever since with seemingly little support.” Indeed, the bills have been referred to the Committee on Armed Services. However, this does not mean that the bill is dead as it can still be voted on. In fact, if draft supporters wanted to make the most of this bill, they would leave it in committee until after the election.

It should also be noted that the Universal National Service Act is not necessarily the only means supporters have of bringing back the draft. As AlterNet recently reported, the issue of the progress (or lack of progress) made with the Universal National Service Act still does not explain changes being made to the Selective Service System, which seems to be aimed at streamlining the draft system. The SSS will submit a report to the president on March 31, 2005.

“A draft would take too long for the military to benefit from it.”

The Selective Service System recently received new funding to be used to improve the system and quicken a draft should one be enacted. As their Annual Performance Plan for 2004 states, by next year the SSS will be able to have local draft boards operational “within 75 days of an authorized return to conscription.” They will also be “operationally ready to furnish untrained manpower within DoD timelines.” And if the current War on Terror is a long lasting generational war as many in the Bush administration have suggested, the time needed to draft and train new troops will be negligable compared to the length of the conflict.

“A draft would not be useful in the current conflict.”

No doubt many in the military prefer working with volunteers rather than draftees. But depending on how the war progresses, they may not have much of a choice. The neoconservatives who are in power at the moment have clearly laid out in the past their desire to spread American control into Middle Eastern countries such as Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. So far Bush has followed the the neoconservative agenda precisely with the war in Iraq. And already the saber rattling has begun in regards to Iran and Syria.

Even assuming Iraq is the last of America’s conflicts in the Middle East, it seems safe to say the U.S. will be maintaining a substantial military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq for quite some time. All of this requires manpower. Considering that the U.S. military is already stretched thin, a draft may be necessary if Bush continues his current policy with regards to the Middle East.

Furthermore, the current conflict is the type that requires a different type of soldier than the United States has employed in recent years. An occupation such as that in Iraq needs people on the ground more than it needs highly trained professionals (another issue that would quicken response time should a draft be enacted). Quantity is more important than quality here.

So while there is certainly a good bit of evidence to suggest that there will be no draft, there is enough support for the idea that Americans should take it seriously.

There really is no way of proving for certain whether a draft is in the works or not. Some evidence points to a draft. Some doesn’t. So for those unsure what to believe, it really comes down to Pascal’s Wager. If we assume a draft is in the works and that assumption is correct, then this is the only opportunity we have to stop it. If the assumption is incorrect then nothing is lost by assuming that it is. On the other hand, if we assume that a draft is not in the works and that assumption is incorrect, then we have lost our only chance of avoiding it.

I for one would rather act now and risk being wrong than do nothing and risk being right. On the line is nothing less than the lives of an entire generation of Americans.