Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.

Yesterday I wrote about Osama bin Laden’s motivations for the attacks of September 11. I wrote this in part to show the depth of Mr. Bush’s mistake in sending U.S. forces into Iraq. But I also wanted to establish a very important point about bin Laden. Whatever else one might say about the man, he is a person who thinks about the consequences of his actions, planning every last detail. Thus, we should assume that every action he takes is meant to achieve clear, obtainable goals. With this in mind, the question that must be asked is what will be bin Laden’s next move?

All summer we have been hearing about the possibility of a terrorist attack aimed at influencing the outcome of the election. This does not offer a great deal of specific information. But once again, we can make some conclusions by knowing motive, means, and opportunity.

While many Americans take news that al Qaida is trying to effect the election to mean that bin Laden wants Senator Kerry to win, there is really no evidence to support this claim. For one thing, having Kerry in office runs the risk of having somebody who has the ability to build an actual coalition and who might even turn America’s attention back to al Qaida. So far Bush has done everything bin Laden ever could have hoped for from the United States. He is somebody that can be manipulated. The senior U.S. intelligence official who goes by the name “Anonymous” recently published his book entitled Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror. Anonymous’ previous book, Through Our Enemies’ Eyes: Osama Bin Laden, Radical Islam and the Future of America, was one of the definitive works on al Qaida. “I’m very sure they can’t have a better administration for them than the one they have now,” Anonymous said of al Qaida in an interview with The Guardian. “One way to keep the Republicans in power is to mount an attack that would rally the country around the president.”

In fact, bin Laden has made no secret of his own desire to die as a martyr attacking the United States. In a tape released in February 2003 bin Laden states, “In this final year I hurl myself and my steed with my soul at the enemy. Indeed on my demise I will become a martyr.” He goes on to say, “I pray my demise isn’t on a coffin bearing green mantles. I wish my demise to be in the eagle’s belly.” The “eagle” in question appears to be a reference to America. His health deteroriating, bin Laden hopes to assure his place in heaven by dying as a martyr in an attack against the United States.

Of course, not just any attack will do for the leader of al Qaida. He will want his life to end in a crippling blow against the United States. If recent reports are accurate, it will be a strike even more devastating than that of 9/11. This means that bin Laden will be willing to pull out everything he has–his ace in the hole.

During the 1990s Russia lost track of an unknown number of portable nuclear devices, or suitcase nukes. An organization such as al Qaida would be very interested in acquiring one of these devices. And an organization of al Qaida’s scope and resources would certainly have the ability to acquire one. Ayman al-Zawahri, bin Laden’s number two and the real brains of al Qaida, told Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir in an interview that they have been successful in obtaining just such a weapon. “If you have $30 million, go to the black market in central Asia, contact any disgruntled Soviet scientist, and a lot of … smart briefcase bombs are available,” al-Zawahri is quoted as saying. “They have contacted us, we sent our people to Moscow, to Tashkent, to other central Asian states and they negotiated, and we purchased some suitcase bombs.”

If bin Laden wanted maximum effect, he would wait until some time around October. He could easily get on a barge and take it down the Hudson River. And there he could detonate the nuke before anybody even realized what was happening. The effect of such an attack would be far worse than 9/11.

By timing the attack anywhere between the Republican National Convention and Election Day he would virtually guarantee Bush’s reelection as enraged Americans rally behind their commander-in-chief–a suitable reward for the man who gave him Iraq. But such an attack would no doubt accomplish much more than simply helping out an old friend of the family. With the financial capital of the United States and the western world in ruins and the threat of nuclear attack looming as a very real possibility, America just might be forced to reconsider its policies in regard to al Qaida’s demands. After all, the one thing that saved the world during the Cold War was the fact that both sides were unwilling to unleash their nuclear arsenals for fear of the consequences. Al Qaida, however, is an enemy unlike the Soviet Union. They are more than willing to sacrifice their own lives and the lives of any one of their citizens to achieve their goals. If it should come to the use of weapons of mass destruction, the terrorists have a clear advantage. This gives them the ability to make demands–demands such as the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Arabian Peninsula, which is what they wanted from the United States to begin with. With American support gone, many of al Qaida’s enemies in the region will fall virtually overnight, clearing the way for a new Caliphate. And through it all the man speaking for America will be dependable, predictable George W. Bush.