But Jason — you’re the one that pointed to this particular ice shelf being responsible for the conveyor slowing down — now you’re saying that it is not a significant player?

No, quite the opposite. What I’m saying is that it forms entirely in winter, then melts entirely in spring–so it’s a whole new structure every year. So it becomes rather discrete. Each year’s Odden ice shelf has very little to do with the year before, or the year after. It’s essentially a clean slate every winter.

The Odden Ice Shelf is sinply a case in point. The Northern Ice/Glaciers will always be affected overall by seasonal average temperatures… so more cold, over a longer season (especially if there is high snowfall) will increase the mass of ice both in the north and on the mountaintops… but a single winter will not be anywhere near enough to make a long term difference. That was my basic point. Fluctuation in temperatures like this, will likely lead to greater fluctuation and instability until the whole thing breaks… or, greater fluctuation will lead to new stable state… thanks to the overall complexity of weather, plus chaos theory, we can’t really say which way it will go.

But Jason — you’re the one that pointed to this particular ice shelf being responsible for the conveyor slowing down — now you’re saying that it is not a significant player?

Janene

But I also think the area where the Odden ice shelf forms is relatively out of the way for the Gulf Stream’s effects, so i don’t think it’s a matter of next year looking any better–just that Europe will get to see the regular temps for its latitude, which is something it’s not nearly used to.

I guess I don’t know enough. That’s kind of counter-intutive. Janene? Help me out?

Jason talks at one point about the Ice Shelf off of Greenland that failed to form last year… An excessively cold winter will allow the shelf to form again this year… probably not as large as it should be (since it is starting smaller this year), but larger than if there were an average winter. If this happens then next year, the conveyor will be strengthened rather than further weakened. This should (HAH!) mean that the following year will be more typical, followed by a relatively warm winter, followed by another ‘overmelt’ followed by another severe winter…. etc.

I suspect that there will be a cycle like this for some years before the system breaks down entirely.

Although, there are certainly other possibilities… the ‘Little Ice Age’ was caused not by gradual change, but rather by a sudden collapse of a glacier in Canada, causing a flood of fresh water to be dumped in the North Atlantic. The sudden, and dramatic change in salinity caused the Conveyor to shut down all at once. It could be that the only way it CAN be shut down is suddenly… that is both good and bad. No way at all to judge when, why, how… but also less chance that it happens.

In any case, it is the conveyor system that has climate scientists suggesting that global warming may inexorably lead to Glaciation…

Janene

Hurricane Rita has caused more damage to oil rigs than any other storm in history and will force companies to delay drilling for oil in the US and as far away as the Middle East, initial damage assessments show.

ODS-Petrodata, which provides market intelligence to the offshore oil and natural gas industry, said it expected a shortage of rigs in the US Gulf this year.

“Based on what we have right now, it appears that drilling contractors and rig owners took a big hit from Rita,� said Tom Marsh of ODS-Petrodata. “The path Katrina took was through the mature areas of the US Gulf where there are mainly oil [production] platforms. Rita came to the west where there is a lot of [exploratory] rig activity.�

Steve (with a big smile),

Well said. I’d recommend switching your heating over to a new renewable technology. My personal favorite is the sweater. Here’s a link all about it: Sweaters

This may be the first big swing in my sine curve

Janene

This is going to be a very bad winter.

Midwestern heating gas is gonna set a new high this winter…

To put it bluntly:

Fuck.

Steve,
whose apartment is heated by gas