“Once in a Lifetime”
by Jason GodeskyTied for most storms in a single season. Tied for most hurricanes in a single season. Most category V hurricanes in a single season. Most powerful season on record. Most powerful hurricane. First use of the “V” or “W” names, ever. Only the second season to ever use the “R,” “S,” or “T” names. Earliest formations of a season’s fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth and eleventh storms. Most storms in July; most storms before August. First hurricane to make landfall in Spain. Those are some of the records the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season has already made–and we still have a third of October and all of November to go. Jeff Masters wrote today: “We’re living history this year, everybody, this is a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season.”
Normally, that would be true, if this were simply a freakishly strong season, if there weren’t a systemic cause behind this. But that’s exactly what we’re facing. Look at what we’ve encountered thus far. Yes, there have been an unusual number of storms, but so far, on that front, we’re pretty much in a mutli-directional tie with many other seasons. Most of these storms amounted to very little–they were small, poorly-formed, and disintegrated quickly with little damage.
That is, at least, the storms that didn’t enter the Gulf of Mexico.
So far, every storm that’s entered the Gulf’s searing hot water has turned from a piddly category I or tropical storm into a category V. The latest example if Wilma, the storm that tied 1933’s record for most storms in a single season, and sealed the deal for the first time the names had been exhausted since the system was devised in 1950. When I went to bed last night, it was a category I hurricane. When I woke up, it had shattered all previous records to become the single most powerful storm ever seen in the Atlantic.
In other words, despite the number of storms, the main reason this season has been so utterly destructive because the Gulf of Mexico has been incredibly hot.
So, why is the Gulf of Mexico so hot this year?
Normally, the Gulf Stream moves water out of the Gulf of Mexico, up towards Europe. Like a cross-breeze through a hot summer house, that moves the heat out of the Gulf of Mexico, where it would otherwise bottle up. This year, though, the Gulf Stream has been very weak.
And why is that?
Because the Odden ice shelf never formed last year, way up in the Greenland Sea. Normally, its springtime melting releases a great deal of cold water into the Northern Atlantic, which is pushed to the bottom of the ocean. That is one of the main reasons for the Gulf Stream. But this past winter, the Odden ice shelf never really formed, so it could hardly melt.
And why is that?
Global warming. The arctic ice cover is reaching record lows, and that’s not going to change. So, yes, the number of storms is due to the natural, multi-decadal cycle. The intensity of those storms that enter the Gulf of Mexico is a direct result of global warming.
So, three category V’s in one year is no longer a “once in a lifetime” event. Unfortunately for us, this is something we need to get used to. Welcome to the new normal.
See also.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 19 October 2005 @ 11:32 AM
Yeah, I must say I agree. I don’t really think this will be a once-in-a-lifetime thing. I’ve pretty much already accepted the fact that this will become the norm, and since I live in Texas (close to the coast, no less) — it’s going to suck. Maybe I’ll move to Seattle instead.
Comment by Kelley — 19 October 2005 @ 1:49 PM
If Europe indeed gets a bitter winter like some people are saying, that might cause the Odden ice shelf to reform a bit, evening things out, etc. However, I have also read that the shrinking Arctic ice cap exacerbates the problem, because the white surface of the ice normally reflects a good deal of sunlight. When the ice melts, the dark ocean surface is exposed, absorbing more heat which in turn melts more ice, creating a spiral of increasing temperature.
Roxy
Comment by Raku — 19 October 2005 @ 1:49 PM
Albaence, yes.
And the Greenland Sea area is pretty much unaffected by what’s coming for Europe. Europe’s about to experience the kind of winter that it would normally have at that latitude, if it weren’t for the Gulf Stream. Which means, basically, Siberia.
But that’s not going to make it any colder in the Greenland Sea area, since that just means status quo there. The problem is for everyone who’s gotten so used to something else.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 19 October 2005 @ 1:57 PM
Homer on The Simpsons once refered to Florda as “America’s wang.” Which means we’re about to be kicked in the nuts yet again. I call playground foul!
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 20 October 2005 @ 1:01 PM
Big Gav linked to this article in a post today, where he also pointed out an animation of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season to date.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 20 October 2005 @ 2:02 PM
Jason,
I couldn’t have put everything together so greatly as you did. Wonderful. Especially the “Unfortunately for us, this is something we need to get used to. Welcome to the new normal.” I have been trying to tell Meteorologist Friends of mine to reaaaaaally start thinking about haveing Records as Pre-2005 and Post-2004. And why becuase we will soon not be able to marvel at the old Records becuase they will be overshaddowed by these New Phases of Records becuase People don’t Care About Trees and Our President thinks the Kioto Treaty is dumb, Simply becuase he won’t be able to make more profits from Oil. So Great Great Great. Hope Very Soon The Meteorologists Put the “Pre-Post 2005″ Idea into Effect!!!!!
Snowily, and Musically -
Cory Pesaturo
Comment by Cory Pesaturo — 27 October 2005 @ 11:38 PM