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	<title>Comments on: Thesis #17: Environmental problems may lead to collapse.</title>
	<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/</link>
	<description>se wo were fi na wosan kofa a yenki</description>
	<pubDate>Thu, 20 Nov 2008 17:57:30 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Frank Keegan</title>
		<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-181459</link>
		<dc:creator>Frank Keegan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Nov 2008 18:59:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-181459</guid>
		<description>Species ending? It's our call

http://www.baltimoreexaminer.com/opinion/Species_ending_Its_our_call_story.html

By Frank Keegan
11/16/08
Relax general. Cheer up. Things shall get worse, but they could get better. The choice is ours.

Hearing a vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff utter the words “species ending” about our near future should be enough to wake us all.

Gen. James E. Cartwright uttered the phrase recently during the inaugural Johns Hopkins University Leaders + Legends lecture. He spoke on “Leading Organizational Change to Meet New Challenges.”

What challenges? Financial crises, climate change, weapons of mass destruction widely and readily available to rogue states and lunatic groups. Is that all? No.

“Competition (for scarce world resources) inevitably will lead to conflict,” Cartwright said. “Are we at a tipping point? Yes. Will we have control? No.”

Generals are interested because when leaders of state, commerce and church mess up, armed forces have to clean up.

Cartwright’s love and admiration for the men and women who fight for us if things go wrong is palpable. Figuring out when and where the next conflict breaks out, and how best to combat it, is what generals are supposed to do.

Now they also try to figure out why, and ways to prevent it. For example, a 2004 Department of Defense study determined global warming is the No. 1 threat to the security of the United States. How can that be if there is no such thing?

Just because history proves we turn upon ourselves when stressed with a ferocity unequaled by any other species, is there any reason to think this time will be different?

Nope, according to Cartwright. The stress level is rising, fast. Along with heating things up, we inflict upon ourselves an increasing host of things — from radioactive isotopes to organic chemicals to new and emerging diseases — never before endured by humans.

Family by family, friend by friend we now begin to see the price we pay for our toxic past. We have not seen the worst of it. Our despoiling of our narrow ecological niche leaves us little room for survival.

We are learning the real price of living it up instead of eating bread from the sweat of our brow. We arrogantly believe “the laws of Nature and Nature’s God” beseeched in our Declaration of Independence somehow do not apply to us.

Environmentalists weep about saving Earth when actually our planet is not at risk. We are. Other species come and go. Why not us?

Don’t worry about biodiversity. While exterminating thousands of species, we create opportunities for others. Cockroaches and rats are doing very well. Doing even better are myriad bacteria and viruses. For example, we’ve created perfect environments for growth and spread of staphylococcus and influenza, and the willfully ignorant and criminal negligence of our political and spiritual leaders helped HIV propagate around the globe in less than a decade. Thanks.

Sure, if we ceased all carbon dioxide emissions now it would take only 100,000 years to return to pre-industrial levels.

And those new substances -- we cannot even count them all -- we poison the born and unborn with will continue to kill us for millennia, especially if we use them as weapons.

But we and we alone hold the power to begin undoing what we have done. The hard fact is environmental responsibility is good business, creating jobs, adding real value and paying long-term dividends.

Environmental atrocities are bad business, merely deferring costs that accrue and compound -- costs we cannot refuse to pay. Our ecological deficit is orders of magnitude larger than our fiscal debts, though both grow from our same inherent flaws.

We can pay down both at the same time if we have the wisdom and will to take control.

If we do we can thrive and prosper. If we don’t, Gen. Cartwright is correct. We’re doomed.

Frank Keegan is editor of The Baltimore Examiner. Reach him at fkeegan@baltimoreexaminer.com.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Species ending? It&#8217;s our call</p>
<p><a href="http://www.baltimoreexaminer.com/opinion/Species_ending_Its_our_call_story.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.baltimoreexaminer.com/opinion/Species_ending_Its_our_call_story.html</a></p>
<p>By Frank Keegan<br />
11/16/08<br />
Relax general. Cheer up. Things shall get worse, but they could get better. The choice is ours.</p>
<p>Hearing a vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff utter the words “species ending” about our near future should be enough to wake us all.</p>
<p>Gen. James E. Cartwright uttered the phrase recently during the inaugural Johns Hopkins University Leaders + Legends lecture. He spoke on “Leading Organizational Change to Meet New Challenges.”</p>
<p>What challenges? Financial crises, climate change, weapons of mass destruction widely and readily available to rogue states and lunatic groups. Is that all? No.</p>
<p>“Competition (for scarce world resources) inevitably will lead to conflict,” Cartwright said. “Are we at a tipping point? Yes. Will we have control? No.”</p>
<p>Generals are interested because when leaders of state, commerce and church mess up, armed forces have to clean up.</p>
<p>Cartwright’s love and admiration for the men and women who fight for us if things go wrong is palpable. Figuring out when and where the next conflict breaks out, and how best to combat it, is what generals are supposed to do.</p>
<p>Now they also try to figure out why, and ways to prevent it. For example, a 2004 Department of Defense study determined global warming is the No. 1 threat to the security of the United States. How can that be if there is no such thing?</p>
<p>Just because history proves we turn upon ourselves when stressed with a ferocity unequaled by any other species, is there any reason to think this time will be different?</p>
<p>Nope, according to Cartwright. The stress level is rising, fast. Along with heating things up, we inflict upon ourselves an increasing host of things — from radioactive isotopes to organic chemicals to new and emerging diseases — never before endured by humans.</p>
<p>Family by family, friend by friend we now begin to see the price we pay for our toxic past. We have not seen the worst of it. Our despoiling of our narrow ecological niche leaves us little room for survival.</p>
<p>We are learning the real price of living it up instead of eating bread from the sweat of our brow. We arrogantly believe “the laws of Nature and Nature’s God” beseeched in our Declaration of Independence somehow do not apply to us.</p>
<p>Environmentalists weep about saving Earth when actually our planet is not at risk. We are. Other species come and go. Why not us?</p>
<p>Don’t worry about biodiversity. While exterminating thousands of species, we create opportunities for others. Cockroaches and rats are doing very well. Doing even better are myriad bacteria and viruses. For example, we’ve created perfect environments for growth and spread of staphylococcus and influenza, and the willfully ignorant and criminal negligence of our political and spiritual leaders helped HIV propagate around the globe in less than a decade. Thanks.</p>
<p>Sure, if we ceased all carbon dioxide emissions now it would take only 100,000 years to return to pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>And those new substances &#8212; we cannot even count them all &#8212; we poison the born and unborn with will continue to kill us for millennia, especially if we use them as weapons.</p>
<p>But we and we alone hold the power to begin undoing what we have done. The hard fact is environmental responsibility is good business, creating jobs, adding real value and paying long-term dividends.</p>
<p>Environmental atrocities are bad business, merely deferring costs that accrue and compound &#8212; costs we cannot refuse to pay. Our ecological deficit is orders of magnitude larger than our fiscal debts, though both grow from our same inherent flaws.</p>
<p>We can pay down both at the same time if we have the wisdom and will to take control.</p>
<p>If we do we can thrive and prosper. If we don’t, Gen. Cartwright is correct. We’re doomed.</p>
<p>Frank Keegan is editor of The Baltimore Examiner. Reach him at <a href="mailto:fkeegan@baltimoreexaminer.com">fkeegan@baltimoreexaminer.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Collapse in Inevitable &#171; Walking Green</title>
		<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-181317</link>
		<dc:creator>Collapse in Inevitable &#171; Walking Green</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:43:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-181317</guid>
		<description>[...] our own world, our own complexity may accelerate that pace, as with our environmental problems (see thesis #17), or it may even create those problems, as with Peak Oil (see thesis #18). Even were these not the [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] our own world, our own complexity may accelerate that pace, as with our environmental problems (see thesis #17), or it may even create those problems, as with Peak Oil (see thesis #18). Even were these not the [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>By: Crunch or Crash? - the idiot&#8217;s guide &#171; Rugged Indoorsman</title>
		<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-181062</link>
		<dc:creator>Crunch or Crash? - the idiot&#8217;s guide &#171; Rugged Indoorsman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Sep 2008 15:11:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-181062</guid>
		<description>[...] Greer doesn&#8217;t see much cause for alarm in this particular crisis, and I share his attitude of &#8216;reaching for the popcorn instead of the panic button&#8217; to a certain extent (like him I also have few significant investments in the continuation of this corrupt state of affairs - a luxury I&#8217;ve worked hard at to maintain), but just because a society has overcome problems in the past does not guarantee it will do so in the future when faced with a greater number and/or severity of existential threats. Also, historically, complex cultures often fall to storms they had previously weathered with ease. As Jason Godesky puts it: The diminishing returns of complexity are the ultimate cause of collapse, but there are other, proximate causes which ultimately deliver the coup de grace. By analogy, no individual dies of AIDS; rather, AIDS creates a condition where otherwise harmless infections become fatal. Likewise, the diminishing returns of complexity is the ultimate cause of collapse by creating a condition where factors which otherwise might have easily been overcome, prove disastrous instead. (link) [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] Greer doesn&#8217;t see much cause for alarm in this particular crisis, and I share his attitude of &#8216;reaching for the popcorn instead of the panic button&#8217; to a certain extent (like him I also have few significant investments in the continuation of this corrupt state of affairs - a luxury I&#8217;ve worked hard at to maintain), but just because a society has overcome problems in the past does not guarantee it will do so in the future when faced with a greater number and/or severity of existential threats. Also, historically, complex cultures often fall to storms they had previously weathered with ease. As Jason Godesky puts it: The diminishing returns of complexity are the ultimate cause of collapse, but there are other, proximate causes which ultimately deliver the coup de grace. By analogy, no individual dies of AIDS; rather, AIDS creates a condition where otherwise harmless infections become fatal. Likewise, the diminishing returns of complexity is the ultimate cause of collapse by creating a condition where factors which otherwise might have easily been overcome, prove disastrous instead. (link) [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>By: Jason Godesky</title>
		<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-22070</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason Godesky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Sep 2006 23:17:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-22070</guid>
		<description>Yes we do, but unfortunately, that book has very little to do with the factual nature of our global ecological history.  See "&lt;a href="http://anthropik.com/2005/12/overkill-overchill-and-human-nature/" rel="nofollow"&gt;Overkill, Overchill &#038; Human Nature&lt;/a&gt;."</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes we do, but unfortunately, that book has very little to do with the factual nature of our global ecological history.  See &#8220;<a href="http://anthropik.com/2005/12/overkill-overchill-and-human-nature/" rel="nofollow">Overkill, Overchill &#038; Human Nature</a>.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: kerry</title>
		<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-22064</link>
		<dc:creator>kerry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Sep 2006 22:03:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-22064</guid>
		<description>Jason,
You might enjoy reading this newly published online book : 
&lt;a href="http://megafauna.com" rel="nofollow"&gt;megafauna.com&lt;/a&gt;

To move forward effectively, we need to know the factual nature of our global ecological history</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jason,<br />
You might enjoy reading this newly published online book :<br />
<a href="http://megafauna.com" rel="nofollow">megafauna.com</a></p>
<p>To move forward effectively, we need to know the factual nature of our global ecological history</p>
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		<title>By: Jason Godesky</title>
		<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-13847</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason Godesky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jun 2006 20:28:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-13847</guid>
		<description>"&lt;a href="http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060626/canby" rel="nofollow"&gt;Heat Wave&lt;/a&gt;" starts off with some great fodder for the book edit...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;<a href="http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060626/canby" rel="nofollow">Heat Wave</a>&#8221; starts off with some great fodder for the book edit&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Chicken Little Meets the Ostrich &#187; The Anthropik Network</title>
		<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-8865</link>
		<dc:creator>Chicken Little Meets the Ostrich &#187; The Anthropik Network</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Apr 2006 19:43:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-8865</guid>
		<description>[...] Every society faces problems, and as an adaptive system, societies develop means of answering those problems. When a society structures itself to maximize greater complexity as such a problem-solving response, to the exclusion of all other strategies (i.e., when that society becomes a civilization--see thesis #13), it locks itself into a pattern that ultimately can only end in collapse. Once its level of complexity passes the point of diminishing returns, its ability to answer problems becomes weaker and weaker. The pace and intensity of these problems do not increase; it is our ability to solve these problems that begins to decrease. The barbarian horde that swept over the Rhine and conquered an enormous swath of the Western empire in 409 CE was smaller than many of the barbarian forces that the Roman Empire had, in previous centuries, contained with relative ease. Though dealing with drought was one of the primary râison d'etre for the Maya cities, it was ultimately a prolonged drought that did them in. Though one can deterministically predict collapse within a given timeframe due simply to the marginal returns curve of complexity, predicting the specific problem that may prove to be the proverbial straw to break the camel's back is almost impossible, as I said at the beginning of thesis #19: Predicting the proximate cause of collapse is impossible, though, as we have seen, both environmental problems and peak oil present serious threats--precisely the kind of threat that has toppled civilizations in the past. On their own, however, such proximate causes are probabilistic. Peak oil may mean the end of civilization; or, perhaps we will be able to transition to some alternative. Environmental problems may destroy the most basic necessities of civilized life, or perhaps we will solve them, instead. What makes collapse a certainty, rather than a probability, is, ironically, the very thing that defines civilization in the first place: complexity. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] Every society faces problems, and as an adaptive system, societies develop means of answering those problems. When a society structures itself to maximize greater complexity as such a problem-solving response, to the exclusion of all other strategies (i.e., when that society becomes a civilization&#8211;see thesis #13), it locks itself into a pattern that ultimately can only end in collapse. Once its level of complexity passes the point of diminishing returns, its ability to answer problems becomes weaker and weaker. The pace and intensity of these problems do not increase; it is our ability to solve these problems that begins to decrease. The barbarian horde that swept over the Rhine and conquered an enormous swath of the Western empire in 409 CE was smaller than many of the barbarian forces that the Roman Empire had, in previous centuries, contained with relative ease. Though dealing with drought was one of the primary râison d&#8217;etre for the Maya cities, it was ultimately a prolonged drought that did them in. Though one can deterministically predict collapse within a given timeframe due simply to the marginal returns curve of complexity, predicting the specific problem that may prove to be the proverbial straw to break the camel&#8217;s back is almost impossible, as I said at the beginning of thesis #19: Predicting the proximate cause of collapse is impossible, though, as we have seen, both environmental problems and peak oil present serious threats&#8211;precisely the kind of threat that has toppled civilizations in the past. On their own, however, such proximate causes are probabilistic. Peak oil may mean the end of civilization; or, perhaps we will be able to transition to some alternative. Environmental problems may destroy the most basic necessities of civilized life, or perhaps we will solve them, instead. What makes collapse a certainty, rather than a probability, is, ironically, the very thing that defines civilization in the first place: complexity. [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>By: Nano</title>
		<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-6839</link>
		<dc:creator>Nano</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Mar 2006 21:04:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-6839</guid>
		<description>Found this article today about Africa's drought problems.  Thought it was relevant to this topic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4769978.stm</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Found this article today about Africa&#8217;s drought problems.  Thought it was relevant to this topic.</p>
<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4769978.stm" rel="nofollow">http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4769978.stm</a></p>
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		<title>By: Jason Godesky</title>
		<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-6524</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason Godesky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Feb 2006 14:04:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-6524</guid>
		<description>&lt;a href="http://deconsumption.typepad.com/deconsumption/2006/02/odds_n_ends.html" rel="nofollow"&gt;I agree with Steve Lagavulin&lt;/a&gt; on the bourse:

&lt;blockquote&gt;Basically: it's a &lt;em&gt;deal&lt;/em&gt;, but it's not a &lt;em&gt;big&lt;/em&gt; deal. I'd only add that we also keep in mind that even if the Iranian exchange is scheduled to open in late March, that doesn't necessarily mean it will have any immediate effect on oil markets. In fact it will undoubtedly be only a very minor, secondary exchange for quite some time yet.&lt;/blockquote&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://deconsumption.typepad.com/deconsumption/2006/02/odds_n_ends.html" rel="nofollow">I agree with Steve Lagavulin</a> on the bourse:</p>
<blockquote><p>Basically: it&#8217;s a <em>deal</em>, but it&#8217;s not a <em>big</em> deal. I&#8217;d only add that we also keep in mind that even if the Iranian exchange is scheduled to open in late March, that doesn&#8217;t necessarily mean it will have any immediate effect on oil markets. In fact it will undoubtedly be only a very minor, secondary exchange for quite some time yet.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>By: _Gi</title>
		<link>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-6512</link>
		<dc:creator>_Gi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Feb 2006 01:51:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://anthropik.com/2005/11/thesis-17-environmental-problems-may-lead-to-collapse/#comment-6512</guid>
		<description>No worries, Ides of March is March 15. The bourse doesn't open until the 20th :)
I don't believe our elites to be cohesive enough to have just one strategy which they follow flawlessly.
This is because our elites are so huge in numbers. 
I don't think any of this site's main authors believes that a global economical depression will be avoided for much longer. There is no need to be scared, this particular problem also contains multiple opportunities in it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No worries, Ides of March is March 15. The bourse doesn&#8217;t open until the 20th <img src='http://anthropik.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /><br />
I don&#8217;t believe our elites to be cohesive enough to have just one strategy which they follow flawlessly.<br />
This is because our elites are so huge in numbers.<br />
I don&#8217;t think any of this site&#8217;s main authors believes that a global economical depression will be avoided for much longer. There is no need to be scared, this particular problem also contains multiple opportunities in it.</p>
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