The Mid-Apocalypse Review: 2006 Predictions
by Jason GodeskyThe 16th of January is typically pretty late to be making annual predictions, granted. I wasn’t going to do any, but between Deconsumption, Kunstler and, most impressively, Fantastic Planet, I couldn’t resist. A special thanks to Deconsumption for pointing me to this set of predictions reported by USA Today, and highlighting the emerging trend of secession. So, without further ado, my 2006 predictions.
First, I’d like to quote that which was written by a man who may be the greatest living author in English, J. Michael Straczinski, when he wrote the following monologue for “Z’Ha’Dum,” the third season cliff-hanger for Babylon 5:
All around us, it was as if the universe were holding its breath . . . waiting. All of life can be broken down into moments of transition or moments of revelation. This had the feeling of both. G’Quon wrote, “There is a greater darkness than the one we fight. It is the darkness of the soul that has lost its way. The war we fight is not against powers and principalities – it is against chaos and despair. Greater than the death of flesh is the death of hope, the death of dreams. Against this peril we can never surrender.” The future is all around us, waiting in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future, or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.
One can be forgiven for feeling much the same at the end of 2005. Collapse has begun. But I think that if 2005 was a moment of transition, 2006 will be a moment of revelation. I expect this year to be a “calm before the storm,” if you will–a time for our understanding to catch up with events passed, and events to come.
The Trends Research Institute released its projected trends for 2006, as reported by the USA Today article linked above. Among the trends they say to expect:
- The survival business will boom for the first time since the Cold War as Americans perceive their government as incapable of protecting them from terrorist attacks and natural disasters.
- Technology will continue to empower self-reliant, “off the grid” survivalists, who will seek to avoid payment of fuel, water, electricity and telephone bills.
- Citizen-driven movements for states to break away from the union will arise.
- Global sales of products “made in the USA” will suffer after media coverage of Hurricane Katrina, which greatly damaged the world’s view of the United States.
- Online TV, the ultimate in media convergence, will signal the decline of the communication industry’s monopoly on broadcast news and entertainment.
- Real estate values in rural areas will continue to rise as it becomes fashionable to downsize from mega-mansions to log cabins.
- Entertainment that pokes fun at the consumption habits of the wealthy elite will become popular as reality TV’s projection of “real life” becomes increasingly inaccurate.
- A new American labor movement will boost union power for workers in the lowest strata of the U.S. economy.
- Hometown economies will benefit as fuel costs soar and consumers become less willing to drive farther to do their errands; if a pandemic such as bird flu hits, people will patronize local merchants to avoid crowds.
- Discovering reliable new sources of alternative energy will be the primary drive in science and invention.
- Americans will address environmental concerns such as global warming, food safety and recycling.
There is a common strain in these predictions, of course: they all predict a breakdown of centralized, monolithic powers–devolving power to a lower level. Thus, they all represent a reduction in complexity–they all represent collapse.
Deconsumption shows that at least one of these–secession–is already in play. When Chavez offered cheap oil to America’s poor, Bush said that Americans would never be duped by his commie bribes–of course then, Maine’s governor went ahead and signed a deal with Citgo.
Basically the Federal government–itself only an extension of Big American Oil since it’s leaders straddle both boardrooms–refuses to provide for it’s own. So the states begin to look outside their Federal borders for aid. Put another way, what the general populace discovered in the wake of Katrina is now being recognized by State administrators: No One Will Be Coming To Help You…You Are On Your Own.
In terms of foreign affairs–we’ll pull some troops out of Iraq, but we’ll still have a sizable force there by the end of the year. I made some 2005 predictions for Marco that were off on timescale a lot, so I’ll simply copy that as my long-term prediction for the Middle East. I don’t know if it will all happen this year, either, but I’m still convinced that this will be the shape of the future, however long it is in coming:
Iraq will become a Shiite theocracy. The support in Iraq for such a government is overwhelming, so if it isn’t elected, it will be fairly obvious the election was rigged. Even if by some miracle a non-theocratic government is elected, it will be percieved as rigged; in either of these scenarios, or where the Shiite theocracy is elected but not respected by the US, there will be violence to make the current insurrection seem tame by comparison. This is the “Lose Big” scenario, where Iraq becomes a satellite of Tehran, lots of people die, and America is standing by with a lot of egg on its face. The “Lost Little” scenario is where we respect the election and ship out, simply leaving Iraq as a satellite of Tehran. This is much less likely.
Iraq’s submission to Iran will give the Islamic Republic a bid to be the regional power it’s so long dreamt of becoming. This will place a great deal of pressure on Saudi Arabia’s borders, forcing them to divert military forces there, which will weaken their internal defenses against rebellion. Al Qa’ida will take advantage of this, raising a rebellion using some of the weapons from Saddam’s army smuggled across the border. As a result, the House of Sa’ud will not last out the year.
As this scenario is exactly what al Qa’ida has lived and died for for over ten years, there will not be any significant terrorist attacks inside the United States, for fear of disrupting the unfolding of this plan.
Iran will submit to the West exactly as much as is required to keep them from war, so that they can take advantage of the situation. They may become more brazen once Iraq is in their pocket.
The fall of Sa’ud will wreak havoc with the oil markets. 2006 will be marked by a great deal of geopolitical turmoil as the New World Order falls into place… I’m getting ahead of myself, but some of this might be towards the end of 2005, depending on how quickly the situation unfolds in Iraq.
Fortunately, we seem to be going for the “Lose Little” scenario now, thanks to an unexpected surge by the liberals in the United States.
In terms of hurricanes, we’re at the peak of a multi-decadal cycle, and it doesn’t look like the Odden ice shelf is going to form this year, either. I don’t know if we’ll break as many records as 2005 did, but the Gulf of Mexico will probably be very hot. Any tropical storm that touches it will stand a good chance of reaching category V. A second season of category V’s will probably prompt a much more honest debate about global warming by the year’s end.
I also think Deconsumption’s right about 2006 being the year that “Peak Oil” goes mainstream, and once again, I can only nod my agreement wth Steve’s overall impression:
The general image I have in my mind for 2006 is the opening tip-off in a basketball game. Certainly 2005 was a year of transition in a great many ways, but most of those ways were internalized. Because despite several obvious and striking “events” which served to bring critical problems and issues into the public consciousness, still for the majority of Americans those issues more or less only happened “in TV Land”. Or in keeping with the basketball analogy, 2005 to me was the year the players finally got off the benches and began to line-up in their respective sides on the playing court, but no game had really started, per se. Still, the anticipation and tension is steadily mounting as we approach the official whistle-blow….
If the 2006 year is the “calm-before the storm”, I can already imagine what the 2007 year will be like.
If the hurricane season is anything like this past one, which would be something indeed as there were a numerous amount of hurricanes in 2005 and one even sneaking in during December, then by 2006’s end, I imagine the panic over the “state of the world” will increase by quite a bit.
Now, in the beginning of 2006, I think more people are realizing in a public way (rather than just admitting it in their minds) that the overall environment is changing from what they consider to be “normal.”
Still, many people still blindly see the world as it as always been to them.
2006-2007 will be a rude awakening.
Comment by Miranda — 16 January 2006 @ 2:05 PM
I like your call on 2006, the “calm before the storm.” While I’m growing less optimistic by the day (Iran, Nigeria, etc.), I don’t think that any of the major catalysts of collapse will be fully realized this year–I think that it will be a very sharp move towards the precipice, but not quite over it.
I’m not sure I share your (admittedly VERY guarded) optimism about the ability of the public to recognize the problems that we are confronting. I think it’s at least as likely that the events of 2006 evoke an ostrich-like, reactionary mood. If 2006 hurricane season isn’t actually worse than 2005, it may even create a sense of ease among the populace.
Regarding global warming (and Miranda’s comment), I don’t think that people will really care about it, because for many people it offers the promise of localized benefit. I live in Colorado, for example, and most forcasters think that global warming will result in warmer, wetter weather here–something that will be welcomed given our average 14″ of rain a year. Northern Europeans think that they will get warmer winters, etc. Of course, the reality is not quite so nice: even if it brings better weather on average to many places, it will also bring more erratic weather–the kind that causes real problems. And other places will be decimated by droughts, hurricanes, sea-level rise, etc. But even many people that understand this don’t seem overly alarmed. The hidden danger of global warming is–fitting right in with Jason’s theses–that it makes the overall global system less efficient, and will push our complex, global civilization ever closer, or even over, the edge of collapse. Erratic and changing weather patterns make economic activity less efficient, and they also impose direct economic damages. This is exactly the kind of cost that, in combination with the many other issues, will eventually cause collapse…
Comment by Jeff Vail — 16 January 2006 @ 4:13 PM
Well, as much awareness as we’re ever likely to see. These issues have a very low capacity–maybe 1 or 2% of the total population? I think 2006 will see big improvements over where we are in terms of understanding, as we approach that capacity. But, yeah, if you’re looking at the total population, it looks fairly dismal…
But, to quote the Postal Service’s song, “Sleeping In”:
And then last night i had that strange dream
Where everything was exactly how it seemed
Where concerns about the world getting warmer
The people thought they were just being rewarded
For treating others as they like to be treated
For obeying stop signs and curing diseases
For mailing letters with the address of the sender
Now we can swim any day in November
Comment by Jason Godesky — 16 January 2006 @ 4:19 PM
Jason,
Excellent, well-reasoned post, as I’ve come to expect.
Expanding a bit on the post-Katrina fallout, with another rash of Cat 5 hurricanes, we’re facing a permanent loss of Gulf oil and gas production capacity, and in 2006 there won’t be any help coming from the EU, or releases from our own strategic reserves, for that matter.
The cycle of damage-repair-damage-repair will swirl the whole infrastructure down the toilet.
Concurrently, we face the permanent loss of New Orleans as a seaport. I’ve seen little about the massive, spoiling piles of grain across the upper Midwest, with storage facilities overflowing with grain that can’t get to market. There are bound to be negative impacts to both domestic food prices and to US balance of payments because of Katrina.
And you’re right, every governor in the country has to be putting two and two together, looking at the loss of their locally controlled militias to overseas imperial adventures and the feds’ inability and unwillingness to adequately respond to emergencies.
Vermont won’t be the only secessionist republic, and the US may well be in the early stages of breakup, perhaps into bioregional confederations.
Happy trails,
Rick
“…we must cultivate our gardens.”
Comment by Rick — 16 January 2006 @ 7:55 PM
Jason,
If you don’t mind my asking, how does the current Iran situation fit into your Middle East scenario?
Comment by Vicky — 16 January 2006 @ 9:30 PM
“Northern Europeans think that they will get warmer winters”
Are they that stupid. Northern Europe is one of the few places in the world that will almost certainly get colder as a result of global warming. When fresh water melting off Greenland kills the jet stream, Britain will probably start to look more like Canada, and Rome will find out that it is the same latitude as Chicago.
One prediction I’d like to add, really an either or scenario, either we invade Iran, directly or through our Israeli front, or the dollar totally goes down the shitter. Actually, I think that will start happening anyway, now that it seems foreigners are becoming less willing to finance our insane debt.
Either way it looks like the Feds are preparing for a depression that makes the “Great Depression” look like a vacation. Why else would they stop releasing the M3 data beginning the same month that Iran opens its new petroeuro bourse.
Oh, I think things will get interesting. My theory is that the storm be well underway, but most people will refuse to hear the raging thunder right outside their window because their TV’s are turned up so loud (and of course the news won’t mention a thing).
Of course, Hawaii has had a thriving secessionist movement ever since it was invaded, and their claim is even more valid since they were never legally annexed, we just pretend it was and act that way (to annex territory requires a treaty of annexation, and congress never could get the required 2/3 vote, so they just went ahead and colonized it anyway).
Comment by limukala — 16 January 2006 @ 10:25 PM
I don’t know if we’ll have as many category V’s as last year, so I don’t know if this will become a major factor in 2006 or 2007, but I agree that this is going to become a factor on some timeline.
U.S. food prices are probably not the thing to watch for. The U.S. produces most of the world’s food. We’ve got an imperial arrangement going: most of the world producers consumer goods which they sell to us in exchange for the cash to buy our food. Except, our food can’t get out … 2006 will see worldwide famine because of Katrina. Not that the U.S. will care much, but it will help the breakdown of the American empire even as China and Russia come to the fore. Deconsumption’s predicting 2006 as the end of “the New American Century” (no doubt using the same measure of a “year” as “the Thouand Year Reich”), and that will certainly accelerate the process as Third World farmers switch to food, instead of cotton and coffee.
Iran is shitting itself, with huge oil fields and American armies flanking it in Afghanistan and Iraq. That’s what this nuclear talk comes down to: trying to deter a U.S. invasion. Which may end up as a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Invading Iran was probably in the plans, but it sounds like the plans changed. They’ve been bogged down in Iraq too long. The invasion of Iran probably had to be scrubbed. We’ll probably play this one diplomatically, like we did North Korea.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 16 January 2006 @ 10:54 PM
I just saw an older PBS documentary on the Alaskan-Canadian Highway, constructed in 1942-3. Right after pearl harbor, the US government - fearing a Japanese invasion of the outermost islands in Alaskan territory - had to do something to show the American people that the army was both competent and capable to protect them. So it decides to blaze a 1500mil highway, in 9 months, through extreme climate and uncharted terrain - virgin, mountainous forest - to secure an air corridor to Alaska.
It is amazing to consider the “just make it happen” mind set of the people deciding to build this, and then the people actually building this; the nine months straight of 24hr works days; the trainloads of resources and effort pushed forward…
It just makes me think… The belief that we can fight, build, innovate, (not to mention corrupt, steal, or exploit) our way out of any predicament. I wonder what we’ll do as our last, big power play - to calm our fears, to contradict the mounting evidence, and to convince ourselves that we still maintain some control…
I wonder if we’re already making that big play…
Comment by JCamasto — 17 January 2006 @ 12:34 AM
Well, those displays are only possible when you’re before the point of diminishing returns. Our ability to duplicate the miraculous 150% production rates of WW2 is simply not there anymore.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 17 January 2006 @ 12:41 AM
Hey –
Just a light side note. I saw that documentary, also, some time back. But I had a little bit of a different reaction to it. My Great Uncle and his family lived in Alaska while the majority of my family is from Wisconsin… so when the highway was built my (favorite) great aunt and her husband took a road trip up there. When she died, we found that she had kept a journal of the trip and the beautiful sites they saw along the way.
Ah, personal history….
Janene
Comment by Janene — 17 January 2006 @ 9:46 AM
2005 will be known as the last prosperous year for the general public.
Holders of scrap of all kinds, but mostly metal (car salvage yards top my list), will become the new landed class.
Violent crimes begin to increase, mostly as a result of robbery and theft.
Small towns, in sparsely populated counties having a mixture of farming land - surrounded by large tracts of forests - will become the haven for those with foresight.
People with a degree of wealth will move to the Great Lakes watershed to escape the scarcity of water and oppressive heat.
Comment by Rick Larson — 18 January 2006 @ 12:16 AM
I think the purely military view on Iran is a little simplistic.
I think the military option is just a fallback. It’s just not developed enough to happen in time to prevent the opening of their Bourse.
Since one of the few unique and useful things we produce in the US is dollars to be used by everybody as common currency, the Bourse is a HUGE problem.
Hiding M3 is really a way to hide the Fed’s currency manipulation to make the dollar more attractive than the Euro. So, they’ll dutifully announce the interest rate is going up to 4.75 in March while the rate goes way up in reality.
Meanwhile, I’ve read the EU is shooting to strengthen the Euro by March, too. So, it’s a currency cage-match. The dollar will mostly win, since it has all those folks holding it and all that history, but the Euro will try to at least get a little chunk.
If that doesn’t work, then we bomb the Iranian Bourse, as a “hardened nuclear bomb-making site.”
Comment by Sam — 20 January 2006 @ 3:50 AM
I didn’t say a word about why the U.S. would want to invade Iran–I was talking purely of why Iran would be pursuing its current course, and that is most certainly because they’re terrified the U.S. will invade them. I didn’t say a thing about how likely that terror was to be justified.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 24 January 2006 @ 12:44 PM
Well, we’re halfway through the ‘06 hurricane season, and it seems as if we’ve been lucking out so far as conditions for a record-breaking hurricane season are as much in place this year as they were last year. The reason for the lack of major hurricanes is that there is a powerful upper-atmosphere wind-system that has been decapitating tropical storms and depressions before they can become hurricanes.
Comment by Thomas Rondy — 12 September 2006 @ 8:11 PM
Typical American myopia. If it isn’t happening to us it might as well not be happening at all. No major hurricanes this year? Did you tell the Pacific that?
Comment by Jason Godesky — 13 September 2006 @ 9:41 AM
It’s not entirely myopia–it’s also semantics. A hurricane in the Pacific may be the same storm, but it’s called a typhoon in countries that live in Pacific hurricane zones. Thus, the “hurricane season” is quite low. The “typhoon season” is high.
Comment by Taylor — 13 September 2006 @ 4:04 PM
Yeah, I was having some fun at the expense of the ‘Merkans. But it seems that upper-atmosphere wind-system Thomas mentioned was the early start of El Niño. The northeast U.S., where our television news is located, will have a fairly mild winter if this keeps up, so expect cheery reports about global warming being a bunch of chicken littling, while New Guinea starves, Australia suffers drought, southeast Asia burns, and South America is flooded. ‘Cause if it ain’t happenin’ here….
Comment by Jason Godesky — 13 September 2006 @ 4:17 PM
The northeast U.S., where our television news is located, will have a fairly mild winter if this keeps up, so expect cheery reports about global warming being a bunch of chicken littling, while New Guinea starves, Australia suffers drought, southeast Asia burns, and South America is flooded. ‘Cause if it ain’t happenin’ here….
Then expect cheery reports in Australia, South America, and southeast Asia when, in the next cycle, we’re burning and freezing in the U.S. and they aren’t!
Comment by Taylor — 13 September 2006 @ 5:10 PM