The Mid-Apocalypse Review: 2005-2006 Winter
by Jason Godesky
It’s been an unseasonably warm winter so far, including the warmest January on record. According to NOAA’s report, this past month saw “an average temperature of 39.5 degrees F, which is 8.5 degrees F (4.7 degrees C) above the 1895-2005 mean of 31.0 degrees F.” Nor is this merely a stateside phenomenon; the Aussies are reporting the same thing down under. At the same time, Europeans are dying from the cold. The reasons for such enormous variability, from record highs to lethal cold, is not exactly mysterious–even a layman like myself was able to predict Europe’s temperatures, back in September. Europe’s lethal cold and last year’s hurricanes are both part of the same phenomenon: the extinction of the Gulf Stream. Even that is a mere sideshow to the much bigger problem of global warming.
To review what I wrote last September:
Normally, the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico is carried away, across the Atlantic, on the Gulf Stream. It’s this warm current from the Gulf of Mexico that keeps northern Europe from being a frozen ice-box, like most areas at its same latitude–like, say, Siberia.
Every year, the Odden ice shelf forms during the deep cold of the arctic winter, and grows into the Greenland Sea. As winter turns to spring, and then summer, the Odden ice shelf melts. This super-cooled water goes to the bottom of the Atlantic. The movement of so much water, of such varying temperature, helps drive the Gulf Stream–which keeps Europe from freezing, and keeps the Gulf from boiling.
The problem is, this year, the Odden ice shelf never really formed. The arctic is becoming warmer, as scientists predicted would be the first and most obvious sign of global warming. Having never formed, it could hardly melt. The Gulf Stream has slowed down considerably. The hot water has remained in the Gulf, and Europe is facing a very bitter winter.
Because of polar amplification, we’d expect the first impacts of global warming to be seen at the poles; namely, the melting of the polar ice. It’s already progressed far enough that even the Bush administration is considering taking steps to protect polar bears from falling right into the Arctic Ocean. It also inhibits things like the Odden ice shelf.
Though it’s difficult to find up-to-date numbers, given that January set a new record for the warmest on record (beating the previous record of 1999), it doesn’t seem very likely that we’ll see significant ice this year, either, which should line us up for another yearly cycle of the same hurricane conditions, and the same lethal European cold.
If that wasn’t enough, this is a La Niña year, and, as NOAA reports:
Typically, La Niña events favor increased Atlantic hurricane activity, however, Jim Laver, director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center says, “It is too early to say with confidence what effects this La Niña event will have on the 2006 hurricane season.”
Given the state of the arctic ice, though, it’s becoming a safer bet every day.
Excellent. So the only thing left to decide is what to do when we run out of Greek letters. My vote is for Arabic or Hebrew letters. We’d just need an alphabet with an order and letters with names. (English doesn’t have names for it’s letters while Greek and Hebrew, for example, do.)
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 8 February 2006 @ 4:57 PM
My vote is for Mandarin characters.
Starting with the one that means, “Oh, fuck.”
- Chuck
Comment by Chuck — 8 February 2006 @ 9:02 PM
Global Warming? Global Cooling? Nukes? Polar shift? Weaking Magnetic Field? Oh We’re Fucked Indeed.
Comment by Nalos Surith — 8 February 2006 @ 9:13 PM
And for those of you whom haven’t seen the Pentagons Preperation Plans for the coming climate change, There’s the link.
Comment by Nalos Surith — 8 February 2006 @ 9:15 PM
What website did you get that leading chart from?
Seem to remember reading a theory indicating the land closest to the poles will be the only land mass capable of sustaining human life. Does anyone have a comment about this?
Comment by Rick Larson — 8 February 2006 @ 10:16 PM
James Lovelock, “Gaia’s Revenge.” As I wrote there:
Comment by Jason Godesky — 8 February 2006 @ 10:52 PM
My girlfriend is currently studying abroad in Brussels, and she can attest to the bitch of a winter they’re having over there. She has been pretty miserable for the most part for this first month of her being there. I just thought this was usual Belgium weather. I’ve felt bad about not being able to empathetically relate to her experience, what with the barely existent winter I’ve been having here (St. Louis, MO). But I’ve taken a course in environmental science- I should have connected the dots for myself. Thanks for enlightening the cause of our (well, mostly her) situation.
Comment by Tom Campbell — 9 February 2006 @ 12:53 AM
Well Tom, I live in Belgium as well and I must say it’s not much colder then usual. Actually it’s not been that bad the last weeks because it hasn’t rained. If she came here to Belgium by her own free will, well then that’s her own fault. You really can’t expect good weather in Belgium.
So there’s no point in empathetically relating to her :p
By the way, I hope she’s just here with erasmus for a half year?
And why did she pick Brussels because it’s not exactly a beautiful city.. She’d better have picked Gent (Ghent in english) because that’s a much nicer city, only 50km from it.
Noone can expect to have fun in Brussels in Belgium in winter….
Comment by gunnix — 9 February 2006 @ 5:39 AM
Gunnix — I have a realllly weird question to ask you. Do you play starcraft?
I was playing a game the other day with a guy whose screen name was gunnix. At least I think that’s what it was. And it didn’t click until just now where I’d seen that before.
Anyway, let me know. That’s going to bother me until I find out.
Comment by Devin — 9 February 2006 @ 11:57 AM
En taro Adun!
Comment by Jason Godesky — 9 February 2006 @ 12:07 PM
Question, PA is ’scheduled’ to get warmer, via global warming/gulf stream effects, yet remain green (no droughts), correct??
The earth will not turn into Waterworld, right? Cus’ I didn’t care for that flick.
Comment by Bubba — 9 February 2006 @ 12:16 PM
No, I’m expecting PA to be more like the Carolinas. Don’t get too attached to the South, though….
Comment by Jason Godesky — 9 February 2006 @ 12:21 PM
Umm, ever since the battle with the first Overmind, it’s been En Taro Tassadar.
Come on, Jase. For a guy who knows so much history, you make the sloppiest mistakes on the most important stuff.
Unless you’re going for the chronological thing, in which case the whole dealie with the Big OM won’t happen for another four centuries.
Wait a minute… I don’t think you’re actually Protoss at all!
- Chuck
Comment by Chuck — 9 February 2006 @ 4:09 PM
Um, You lost me at “Overmind” is this a online gaming reference? Or some sort of mythology/cultural reference that I’m unfamiliar with???
Note: Favorite T-shirt logo of all time–
“I roll 20’s” with a big Die on the front
Comment by Bubba — 9 February 2006 @ 4:16 PM
The whole thing is a Starcraft reference. You may safetly ignore it and remain secure in the knowledge that you have only saved precious brain cells.
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 9 February 2006 @ 4:22 PM
Sure, if you’re one of them no-good, dirty hippies that skee-dattled to Shakuras, like Artanis. But some of us are still loyal to Aiur!
OLD SKOOL, HERETICS!
Comment by Jason Godesky — 9 February 2006 @ 4:34 PM
Hmm, its rough my buddy used to play Starcraft online.
He’s trying to gain my allegiance to DDO a new online game…meanwhile I’m trying to learn about natural food sources in the wild, foraging, perma-farming, and general survival skills. An odd dichotomy for sure.
Um, Have fun with your Overmind–but remember by 2010 or so, you may have to skip rocks, and watch chipmunks instead of 3-D rendered graphics “your armies” vs. “aliens, creatures, other online nerds etc.
Comment by Bubba — 9 February 2006 @ 4:40 PM
Hey, the weekend’s still a few days off, and in the meantime, I’ve got to do something to try to salvage the wreckage of what’s left of the day after I’ve managed to feed myself.
Weekends are for learning to live. Evenings are for killing the pain.
Comment by Jason Godesky — 9 February 2006 @ 4:48 PM
Fun thing about Anthropik is that we can keep the online nerds.
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 9 February 2006 @ 4:49 PM
Where– do you keep the online nerds?
I prefer the title Hick-Geek, nerd makes me sound like I’m going to raid a female dorm with techno devices.
Comment by Bubba — 9 February 2006 @ 5:00 PM
Dude? We publish a blog. Jason is a professional programmer and did all this himself. We’re making an RPG. We’re trying to figure out how to keep computers after the crash. We’re geeks.
And what’s wrong with raiding the girl’s dorm with techno devices?
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 9 February 2006 @ 5:27 PM
Ixnay on the PGRay, eeway aven’tay nnounceday tiay etyay!
Comment by Jason Godesky — 9 February 2006 @ 5:51 PM
Gotcha. I’ll add invent secret language to the list.
Comment by Benjamin Shender — 9 February 2006 @ 6:12 PM
Right nor RPG talk, until announced–got it.
I appreciate your groups Nerd/Geek skills–impressive!
Anthro/Nature buff–foragers to boot. Who would have thunk–
Comment by bubba — 9 February 2006 @ 6:18 PM
It’s a more common class combination than I ever would have thought. You wouldn’t think that “Geek” and “Forager” would multiclass well, and yet….
Comment by Jason Godesky — 9 February 2006 @ 6:22 PM
Multi-Classing seems like a natural progression. For me being a Geek/Hick had its advantagous growing up, good grades & fitting in with the local rednecks (as much as I could handle anyway)
Nothing like playing an RPG, typing into a BLOG, then going out– shooting skeet, then studying visual mnemonics, before camping out in the woods that night–thats a good day.
Comment by bubba — 9 February 2006 @ 6:28 PM
Hm. Last time I checked, I was mind-controlling one of you Judicators.
(Of course, I can’t talk too much trash - I play Terran!)
- Chuck
Comment by Chuck — 9 February 2006 @ 6:58 PM
No Devin, that would be another gunnix.
Luckily, because I see what results such videogames have when I look at the above comments.
Comment by gunnix — 9 February 2006 @ 7:12 PM
The forecast for the south is hot and dry…
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
Comment by Rick Larson — 9 February 2006 @ 9:17 PM
Ahh, so you were impressed with the ‘above’ comments? Sometimes its hard to decipher sarcasm within text alone. Perhaps it was a sarcastic rip, yet deep down you envy their Nerd skills, ability to take a break from reality via games>>since nukes, global warming, dieoff, collapse, etc. are not the most uplifting topics to ponder at all times of the day.
Video games have their uses, you just need to your the visual mnemonic journey method to memorize information for school, life, fun…meanwhile your developed your posterior hippocampus, likely providing some neurogenesis to the same important brain structure & generally improving/stimulating spatial memory skills.
If you become a video game veggie, and let your health/body waste away, and allow a fun diversion to distract your from the very really issue this world faces, then it could be a bad thing.
Hmmm, Besides self-sufficiency skills/knowledge geographic area looks to play a big part as well. Anyone seen an estimates when the migration from the hot/dry south may begin?
Comment by bubba — 9 February 2006 @ 10:13 PM
Heard from a customer in East Texas that a large paper mill is closing because it can not get the needed million gallons of water a day. Also, ranchers are having to pay $240 per round bale of hay.
Another costumer told me the reservior that feeds Dallas is 8 feet low, thats huge seeing the water’s surface area is much greater than the creek channel. Even if rain returns to normal, it is not enough to catch up the deficit.
Suspect when the unemployment runs out they will be migrating. How long can one go without water?
Comment by Rick Larson — 9 February 2006 @ 11:32 PM
It was ment to make you laugh, but sadly you didn’t.
Comment by gunnix — 10 February 2006 @ 5:37 AM
True enough, But I did snicker…
Comment by bubba — 10 February 2006 @ 9:57 AM
hehe
Comment by gunnix — 10 February 2006 @ 11:52 AM
Biologically? 2 days, maybe 3 or 4 under the best of circumstances.
It’s been said many times, here and in other places, that civilization is three hot meals away from collapse. [sarcasm] I have a sneaking suspicion the same is true of water.[/sarcasm]
- Chuck
Comment by Chuck — 10 February 2006 @ 2:42 PM
Hey —
Actually, the quote is every society is three meals away from revolution. Its a pre-collapse thing
Janene
Comment by Janene — 10 February 2006 @ 2:52 PM
This just in from the Inuit:
Inuit Alarmed by Signs of Global Warming
‘Sentries for the rest of the world’ report massive changes to Arctic life
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11951694/
Comment by Raku — 22 March 2006 @ 10:49 AM
Check this out:
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/climate.pdf
Comment by Rick Larson — 4 June 2006 @ 8:50 PM