Oh, hell no, man! In six years I hope to be with my tribe in the boonies of the Pacific Northwest. My tribe’s specific stated purpose (vision, if you will) is to get out there first and figure out the basics, so that if and when “it” hits the fan, we’ll be able to teach and help the people who come into the area, needing assistance.

The above scenario describes the escape of the people my tribe would be helping, not a scenario where vast swathes of urban landscape explodes with life and color. Either way, the car’s crashing into the wall. But you tap those brakes just a little bit, and it can make all the difference in the world.

I don’t think many city areas will survive (and those that do will probably be empty for good long while before being reinhabited), but they’ll crash slowly enough for the smart people to, in the words of Eric Cartman, “get the fudge out”. Even if a crash only took a year, that’s quite a bit of time for smart people to adjust to changing conditions and get out of the bad areas.

- Chuck

I’m not sure what your talking about in terms of Water supplies, since every city I know of requires the use of Energy for waste treatment & water treatment and distribution. The gravity fed water system doesn’t seem to work to well when the power goes out, maybe its different in your area?

But most cities have 24hr-48hrs after the lights go out, before the basics of Water & Sanitation go ‘bye bye’. Thus the complexity of civilization is bound to cause some major problems, that merely cutting back on consumption will not solve.

You appear more optimistic than I, I have seen crime increase locally & what I have seen when the power goes out>>looting & general increase in crime occur.

Maybe people will go to bed with the sun & eat more raw veggies (from their local gardens?? since food will be amazingly expensive as energy costs soar).

This would mean that the entire economic system would need to change, to adapt to a slower crash scenario. The short-sighted view of corporations in general & the political system, make it more likely that a collapse will occur in stages, but ultimately in a relatively quick period of time (decade or so?).

I hope your right Chuck, going to bed with the sun & eating raw veggies & having everyone cut back on consumption sounds good to me… I guess we will have to see, but I wouldn’t suggest waiting for that scenario to come to pass.

One of the main reasons that I don’t think Peak Oil will be instantly apocalyptic in America is because there’s so much fucking consumption that can be cut out. When gas hits 6 bucks a gallon, people will just take mass transit. When the buses and trains stop running, people will start to use bicycles scavenged from junk heaps, and walking a whole lot more. When the electricity goes off, people won’t ransack candle stores, they’ll just go to bed when the sun goes down and eat more vegetables raw. Most water systems are gravity fed, so there’s likely not to be a major thirst problem, but even if they are (as in most of the Los Angeles valley’s satanic desert), the shutoff will be slow enough that smart people will get the hint and walk away. It interests me that the cataclysmic end of the world is such a civilizational meme, yet many primitivists use this pre-packaged story to explain, “what happens next” in the goriest and most two-thirds-of-the-earth-dying-wormwood-tainting-water kind of way.

Peak Oil will very likely spell doom for the control structures and many of the institutions required to keep the civilizational flywheel running, but for the average man, there’s a lot that can be cut out while still remaining content and “materially wealthy”.

Of course, once various militaries start competing with fertilizer producers for oil use, yeah, then we’ll probably see some seriously bad shit… but by then, it is my earnest hope that most of the smart people will have altered their lives sufficiently to be interdependent on the local people and economy, enough to allow a few time enough to knit a parachute to cushion their fall.

- Chuck

I response to this, sadly I think that will not be the case. Yes the media will target it more & more as time goes forward, but I think that the great majority will still consider it “crazy” to become more primitive & sustainable.

The more likely outcome is people will conserve a bit more (save $) maybe plant a small garden, but a hybrid, add insulation to their house and listen to the many people who will say “we have 50-100years before this issue hits, but we should start doing something now.”

Ultimately people will believe & maybe start relying on techno-optimist “solutions” to peak oil. More solar powered stuff, and some other so called ‘greener” ideas. But all in all–their lives will not look a lot different, a bit more frugal & minimalistic perhaps–but that’s about it.

Actually moving dramatically out of civilizations complexity is very unlikely, people will cling tenaciously to it–the media will present hope, the politicians hope, but the hope will be based on more unsustainable ideas>>>like magically turning the leftovers of agrobusiness into ethanol to meet our energy needs in the next 20 years, yeah right.

Not too many people are going to start eating dandelions the next few years. Plus as you mentioned there will be without a doubt wars, plagues, terrorism, viruses etc to keep people fearful, and desiring destractions & modern society presents distratctions galore…

Unless of course they cover it all up with a war or plague or some other sleight of hand excuse…

Wow! You’re way ahead of me! That’s enough for a fairly active tribe, right there!”

I count myself absolutely blessed to be a member of a tribe with four active members and two others who “want in.”

I gotta agree with a lot of what Jason said in his post up there. (In fact, Jason, you really should clean that up and post it as an actual post). In a world with so much uncertainty, a small group of people who are actually making plans and changing their lives and making a difference in the world will attract more than just attention; they’ll attract people who want to do the same thing, but aren’t sure how to begin.

I’ve found that giving yourself permission to begin is the hardest part.

- Chuck

So we are back to the Nike slogan from back in the day, “just do it”. Or perhaps field of dream, build it and they will come?

Yeah, you are probably right. Time to get to work–spring is upon us and the dirt is ready again to perform its miracles.

So is your family going to be a part of the Tribe of Anthropik?

There’s my brother, but otherwise, they share in the techno-utopian dream and dismiss me and my brother as having fallen sway to “doomsayers.” I hope that when it all unfolds the way I’ve told them, they’ll catch on and come find us. Giuli wants to send me on a suicidal rescue mission to New York to pluck her family out when the time comes. So, we’re hoping they come find us when things start to get rough, but right now, no, they’re not on board.

Instead, I go about my business as usual. Sometimes people ask what I’m doing, and I tell them. Sometimes they think I’m crazy, but over time, it begins to have an effect. My parents are interested in gardening now. If they do join us, they’ll have plenty to contribute.

In the meantime, those of us who are preparing ahead of time don’t agree on everything. You see us arguing here all the time. That’s a good thing; a diversity of thought is a good thing. If we all agreed, we’d be much weaker for it. What we agree on is enough to start.

But I think that the reason why most of us hang out on these kinds of sites in the first place is because our family, friends and neighbors are so unresponsive to what we say.

I know unresponsive. My family has questioned my very sanity. But as time goes on, they come closer and closer to my way of seeing things. Partially, it’s the fact that reality is constricting the vise. Partially again, it’s the impact of me and my brother.

Perhaps they can agree with us to a certain extent, or “see where we’re coming from”, but I agree with bubba: at this point in time, it’s still easier to go with the flow of the system than to go against it, or around it, or under it.

If you’re looking for allies, that can be enough to start from. It’s more than I started from.

All in all, I thus far have only three friends/family members that are willing to consider “doing something different” which is what really matters. I have a couple friends willing to talk about things–but do nothing…

Wow! You’re way ahead of me! That’s enough for a fairly active tribe, right there!

And ultimately it boils down to action again, going from the realm of ideas/thoughts/logic to the old fashion dirt on the hands & more simplistic manners of living.

Consider what you’re asking of them. You’re asking them to leave behind everything they know, everything that’s working just fine, to join you in some crazy venture that may or may not work, because of theories X, Y and Z.

Would you go for it?

Don’t tell them about it. Do it. People aren’t inspired by words, they’re inspired by action. Start living it, and they’ll join you. People will come out of the woodwork to join you. Your biggest concern won’t be finding people; it’ll be turning so many people away.

Those that agree to a larger degree about the impending Oil/energy crisis, just can’t believe that things will collapse, even if they can’t provide a logical reason>>they merely “believe”, basically rely on wishful thinking. And honestly, I find very few people who actually critically think anymore at any deep level. People are busy worrying about making money, their kids, what form of entertainment they will purchase this weekend, what celebrity is banging which other celeb.

Some have some general concerns about the environment & energy but don’t have any ideas currently, and when I present the primitive, simplification options>>they tend to knee jerk Balk at the idea. Most people are trying to retain their current level of complexity (lifestyle) or improve it continually. Others just seem too tired, depressed, drugged up on booze or legal psychotropics to care–since they are dealing with the crisis of the moment, family, health problems, lost jobs etc.

Others focus more on Nationalistic worries, middle-east, wars, the weaking of US Hegemony and the like.

All in all, I thus far have only three friends/family members that are willing to consider “doing something different” which is what really matters. I have a couple friends willing to talk about things–but do nothing…Wishful thinking, and other forms of external “magic” that can save people from their global messes remain powerful–I suppose God will make things better, eh?

Perhaps I’m not the salesman Jason is, since I don’t share his optimism, in terms of his above statement in talking with others. And ultimately it boils down to action again, going from the realm of ideas/thoughts/logic to the old fashion dirt on the hands & more simplistic manners of living…few are interested in this, since people have a choice–eventually that choice will be a regret for most, but tis only my opinion. Who knowns, I wish I believed that Nanotechnology was going to turn our garbage into Oil, but I’m really not that good at being an optimist.