Apparently, he has presented his slideshow to many more audiences than Al Gore has shown his.

1. the idea of doubling time (I used to grow bacteria in my old job). A population doesn’t realize it’s running out of room until it’s too late. You can say, hey, we only use a quarter of the Earth’s resources. But if you’re doubling population every 20 years, the way we are, that means in 40 years you’ve eaten the whole planet. You can go for millennia without grasping that you are chewing up a planet.

2. “At current rates of use.” The head of Aramco just said that we have over a century of oil at current rate of use. Problem is, that rate is accelerating. If you factor in the acceleration, his stated reserves are gone in 25 years. “Current rate” never holds still.

3. He convinces us that population growth must stop, then shows what things increase and decrease population. To increase: medical care, nutrition, more food supply, technology, etc. To decrease: Famine, war, disease, and, oh yeah . . . birth control. And he gently asks, which of the latter do you want? With no further comment he shows how murderous and irresponsible the anti-population control viewpoint is.

He experimented with computer programmes which simulated a complicated situation, often in a fictitious Third World (not Fifth World! ;-)) setting, and observed how the players reacted to unforeseen consequences of their previous (in-)decisions. But he also describes how test persons dealt with a somewhat more down-to-earth heating thermostat.

Dörner notes how we tend to extrapolate the future from trends of the past, implicitly assuming a linear progression, unable to grasp the effects of real-world interference, let alone “tipping point” situations resulting from developments that follow an exponential curve. Having read this, I am utterly convinced that hierarchical top-down structures, where few people try to think and decide for all the others, are structurally unable to deal with complex situations, and we can only hope that a more collective approach will be instituted rather sooner than later. One way to achieve this would, of course, be a return to basically tribal structures where everyone’s experience and opinion matters. Building upon this, Rhizome promises to be a sound organizational structure. But, luckily, this is just one aspect of The Truth™…

Anyway, it is utterly important to understand what economic growth, and not just growth, but changes in growth ratios, really mean, and how insane it is to demand a steady increase of growth ratios.

Hmm, so 7% growth is bad, and Coal and Oil won’t last forever, and we can’t endlessly grow our population & economies, what a bummer!

But I loved it. Thanks, Jason.