Comments on: The Mr. Potato Head Economy http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/ se wo were fi na wosan kofa a yenki Sat, 11 Oct 2008 22:24:30 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Jason Godesky http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44283 Jason Godesky Fri, 12 Jan 2007 22:56:37 +0000 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44283 Most people end up moving only from the combination of the carrot <em>and</em> the stick. :) Most people end up moving only from the combination of the carrot and the stick. :)

]]> By: bubba http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44280 bubba Fri, 12 Jan 2007 22:34:09 +0000 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44280 Hey Jason, used the same time frame--as I was typing this up :) I hope that "the shit hitting the fan" isn't the only motivation to make drastic changes in one's personal life--but i suppose extreme dissonance remains one of the primary forms of human motivation--unfortunately I don't think many people will be able to wing it...too many people will be trying desperately to hang onto their addiction to modernity. Hey Jason, used the same time frame–as I was typing this up :)

I hope that “the shit hitting the fan” isn’t the only motivation to make drastic changes in one’s personal life–but i suppose extreme dissonance remains one of the primary forms of human motivation–unfortunately I don’t think many people will be able to wing it…too many people will be trying desperately to hang onto their addiction to modernity.

]]> By: bubba http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44278 bubba Fri, 12 Jan 2007 22:30:26 +0000 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44278 When? Predicting the future with any specificity is very difficult. Maybe a time range, since catabolic collapse could occur, or the 1st world countries could maybe follow argentina's model for awhile? How about we just pick 2012-2015 as the time period where serious change occurs...I think thats what the unicorn told me? When? Predicting the future with any specificity is very difficult.

Maybe a time range, since catabolic collapse could occur, or the 1st world countries could maybe follow argentina’s model for awhile?

How about we just pick 2012-2015 as the time period where serious change occurs…I think thats what the unicorn told me?

]]> By: Jason Godesky http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44275 Jason Godesky Fri, 12 Jan 2007 22:24:39 +0000 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44275 <blockquote>A 3% annual depletion rate will mean supply contraction of only 50% in 23 years.</blockquote> "Only"?? That would still be catastrophic--that means losing half of all of civilization in just 23 years. Besides, early indications suggest it won't be 3%, but more like <a href="http://www.jeffvail.net/2006/01/more-big-peak-oil-news-that-isnt-being.html" rel="nofollow">10% - 18%</a>. And again, as we've stated here time and again, Peak Oil is not the only problem civilization is facing, nor even necessarily the most pressing. <blockquote>Please man, tell me you don't seriously NOT believe in them!!!</blockquote> As much as I believe in "abiotic oil" or global warming skeptics. <blockquote>When will the shit hit the fan?</blockquote> <a href="http://anthropik.com/2006/02/timeline-of-collapse/" rel="nofollow">About 2012-2015</a> will be the inflection point. Whether we'll recognize it at the time or only in retrospect is another question.

A 3% annual depletion rate will mean supply contraction of only 50% in 23 years.

“Only”?? That would still be catastrophic–that means losing half of all of civilization in just 23 years. Besides, early indications suggest it won’t be 3%, but more like 10% - 18%. And again, as we’ve stated here time and again, Peak Oil is not the only problem civilization is facing, nor even necessarily the most pressing.

Please man, tell me you don’t seriously NOT believe in them!!!

As much as I believe in “abiotic oil” or global warming skeptics.

When will the shit hit the fan?

About 2012-2015 will be the inflection point. Whether we’ll recognize it at the time or only in retrospect is another question.

]]> By: Scot Galego http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44273 Scot Galego Fri, 12 Jan 2007 22:18:54 +0000 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44273 Ok, you've got a lot of references and theory back up for global warming peak oil and I'll have to cut you a bit of slack, but leprechauns and unicorns!! ... Please man, tell me you don't seriously NOT believe in them!!! Careful there, in case it come back to haunt you. But...back to point. When? When?? How long have we got before the only ones who can save us or show us the way are the leprechauns on unicorns. When will the shit hit the fan? And what would unicorns and leprechauns do? Ok, you’ve got a lot of references and theory back up for global warming peak oil and I’ll have to cut you a bit of slack, but leprechauns and unicorns!! …

Please man, tell me you don’t seriously NOT believe in them!!!

Careful there, in case it come back to haunt you.

But…back to point.
When? When?? How long have we got before the only ones who can save us or show us the way are the leprechauns on unicorns.

When will the shit hit the fan?
And what would unicorns and leprechauns do?

]]> By: _Gi http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44270 _Gi Fri, 12 Jan 2007 22:06:08 +0000 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44270 If peak is 5 years from now, and depletion is slow, we probably will not need to replace a whopping 70% of fossil fuels in 30 years. A 3% annual depletion rate will mean supply contraction of only 50% in 23 years. And most of that supply will still be coming to civilized countries, the Third World will be competed out of the market, and left to live without the fossil fuels. So, we'll have some living examples of what people without fossil fuels can do, before we have to deal with the problem. Since the civilized countries are not increasing in population, and underdeveloped countries are more vulnerable to a virulent pandemic which has the potential to decrease population by as much as one third and is somewhat overdue, the is still a good chance that collapse will not happen so quickly, that for many in this generation (let alone in the next decade) it will be the best option to retreat from civilization on this continent. If peak is 5 years from now, and depletion is slow, we probably will not need to replace a whopping 70% of fossil fuels in 30 years.
A 3% annual depletion rate will mean supply contraction of only 50% in 23 years. And most of that supply will still be coming to civilized countries, the Third World will be competed out of the market, and left to live without the fossil fuels.
So, we’ll have some living examples of what people without fossil fuels can do, before we have to deal with the problem.
Since the civilized countries are not increasing in population, and underdeveloped countries are more vulnerable to a virulent pandemic which has the potential to decrease population by as much as one third and is somewhat overdue, the is still a good chance that collapse will not happen so quickly, that for many in this generation (let alone in the next decade) it will be the best option to retreat from civilization on this continent.

]]> By: SF http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44248 SF Fri, 12 Jan 2007 19:45:05 +0000 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44248 When one considers that it might not be possible to make or repair solar panels, micro-hydro, and other forms of alternative energy from electricity alone the EROEI might be even less than 1:1. So much for the theory of robots making solar panels in the desert only to create power to make more robots and solar panels. When compared to that Leprechauns on unicorns just might have a better chance of helping us out. When one considers that it might not be possible to make or repair solar panels, micro-hydro, and other forms of alternative energy from electricity alone the EROEI might be even less than 1:1. So much for the theory of robots making solar panels in the desert only to create power to make more robots and solar panels. When compared to that Leprechauns on unicorns just might have a better chance of helping us out.

]]> By: Jason Godesky http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44239 Jason Godesky Fri, 12 Jan 2007 19:05:14 +0000 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44239 There's a difference between peak production and peak efficiency. Efficiency peaks long before production does. Petroleum has dropped, though I believe it's still at least in the high teens. It's the continued dropping of EROEI past peak that is the essential problem of peak oil. Once we drop to 1:1, fossil fuels cease to be an energy source, regardless of how much is still left in the ground. There’s a difference between peak production and peak efficiency. Efficiency peaks long before production does. Petroleum has dropped, though I believe it’s still at least in the high teens. It’s the continued dropping of EROEI past peak that is the essential problem of peak oil. Once we drop to 1:1, fossil fuels cease to be an energy source, regardless of how much is still left in the ground.

]]> By: venuspluto67 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44237 venuspluto67 Fri, 12 Jan 2007 19:00:34 +0000 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44237 <blockquote>Which, compared to the 100:1 you once got from petroleum, is pretty damn near 1:1.</blockquote> According to Richard Manning, petroleum is now at 10:1. And that's at world peak or just-past world peak production!

Which, compared to the 100:1 you once got from petroleum, is pretty damn near 1:1.

According to Richard Manning, petroleum is now at 10:1. And that’s at world peak or just-past world peak production!

]]> By: Jason Godesky http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44235 Jason Godesky Fri, 12 Jan 2007 18:50:26 +0000 http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-mr-potato-head-economy/#comment-44235 Right. At 1:1, you're basically giving me a dollar, and I'll give you a hundred pennies. At 2:1, it takes half the energy you extract just to do the extracting. Which, compared to the 100:1 you once got from petroleum, is pretty damn near 1:1. Right. At 1:1, you’re basically giving me a dollar, and I’ll give you a hundred pennies. At 2:1, it takes half the energy you extract just to do the extracting. Which, compared to the 100:1 you once got from petroleum, is pretty damn near 1:1.

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